What Have I Done?

You know those runs where you feel as though you could run across water? (No, frozen lakes don't count).  Where everything goes perfectly?  Where you feel light on your feet?  Where you have the urge to shout "Good Morning!" to every runner you see?  That was my mindset in committing to run the Securian Winter Run Half Marathon.

Now I've fallen flat on my face.

Why?  Look here:

Here is a plot of my weekly mileage for the last year.  From June to October, I averaged at least 30 miles per week.  I then ran a 3:42 marathon.

Lately, I've been struggling to hit 20mpw.  I can make excuses--the weather, traveling, work--but those are just excuses.  So it pains me that I will be unprepared (read: undertrained) for a race.  Of course I can say that I'll treat this as a "fun race" or a "B race"--but it's a race, and I won't be racing.

But I'll be there on Saturday.  At the starting line.  For my second fun-size marathon.  And I need a strategy.  I may try this on for size:

• Accept that I may not PR: My PR is 1:52 and change.  It was a hot, humid day that turned into a hot, humid, and moist day.  I paced it poorly.  I didn't know the course.  I should be able to beat that, right?  Maybe.  But I have to understand that not every race is a PR race, and that I'll have another chance to beat it at the Boom this year.
• Smart Pacing: I sucked at pacing the Boom.  Out too fast, crashing around mile 7.  I was awesome at pacing TCM.  So, I need to control my pace early on, then push later.  This will be much appreciated since there are a few "hills" in the first few miles.
• What Pace? I haven't settled on a goal time yet.  My last race where I wasn't injured was TCM, and I don't have that kind of base right now, thus I can't use that race to predict a time.  I can't use my training paces because of the weather we've been having (winter weather skews the pace slower).  If I average 8'30" miles (my marathon pace), I could finish in 1:50.  I'll probably run the first few miles around 9'00", then see what I can push it to.
• Hills: There are hills at mile 1-2, 6-7, and 12-finish.  Once again, I'll be applying marathon strategy here and won't attack the hills.  The phrase of the day will be "even effort".  Ok, I may attack that last hill just for fun...
• Fuel/Water: Water stops are at mile 3, 5, 8, and 11.  From what I can tell, there won't be any sports drink.  I think I'll eat drink ingest Gu at mile 5.  Mile 3 is too early.  Mile 11 is too late.  And miles 5 and 8 are too close together.  So, mile 5.  I'd like a second one, but there just isn't a great place for it.  Maybe I'll consume it at the start, and push mile 5 back to mile 8.  Who knows?
• Weather: It's supposed to be high teens/low 20s on Saturday.  I'm cool with that.  It's actually rather ideal, and I'm tempted to wear shorts.  But, I'll probably wear my new compression tights, and some ventable layers on top.

Bulleted lists make me feel better.